Group favors 4-step plan to scrap nuclear weapons by 2030
Jul. 1, 2009
A powerful group of former and current policymakers on Monday presented a four-step plan to scrap nuclear weapons by 2030 ahead of a summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow next week.
The plan by the Global Zero Commission calls on the United States and Russia, the world's biggest nuclear powers, to agree to reduce their arsenals first to 1,000 warheads each by 2013, followed by a cut to 500 each by 2021.
The United States is believed to possess about 2,200 active strategic nuclear warheads and Russia about 2,800. Each has thousands more in reserve as well as large numbers of tactical nuclear arms.
The U.S.-Russia summit on July 6, Obama's second, is expected to hammer out a bilateral accord cutting nuclear stockpiles through a pact to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START 1, which will expire in December.
''The world is nearing a proliferation tipping point when nuclear weapons spread beyond the capacity of any effort to rein them in and the chances increase that they will be used by a country in conflict or by accident, or by a terrorist group,'' the commission said.
In the second phase of reductions to 500, the plan says, all other nuclear weapons states -- Britain, China, France, India, Israel and Pakistan -- would have to agree to freeze and then cut their total warheads.
In the third period from 2019 to 2023, it says, a ''global zero accord'' would be negotiated to include a schedule for the phased, verified reduction of all nuclear arsenals to zero total warheads.
In the fourth and final phase from 2024 to 2030, the cuts would be completed and a comprehensive verification and enforcement system would be maintained, according to the plan.
The Global Zero Commission includes Richard Burt, chief U.S. negotiator for the START 1 negotiations, former U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel, Medvedev adviser Igor Yurgens, and Russian Sen. Mikhail Margelov.
(Distributed by Kyodo News on June 29, 2009)
The plan presented by Global Zero sets a deadline of the year 2030 for the abolition of nuclear weapons, five years earlier than the plan presented at the group’s inaugural conference six months ago. The latest plan notes anew the threats of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism facing human beings and urges political leaders of nuclear weapon states to take action for nuclear disarmament and nuclear abolition in order to thwart these dangers.
Global Zero, led by Richard Burt and others, says that the U.S. and Russia have already dismantled more than 40,000 nuclear weapons during the roughly 20 years since the end of the Cold War between the U.S. and Russia and that dismantling the remaining arsenals by 2030, in excess of 20,000 warheads, is a distinct possibility.
The basic concept involves the U.S. and Russia, which possess 96 percent of all nuclear weapons in the world, each reducing the number of their arsenals to 1,000 and then to 500. This is the same general goal as in the group’s previous plan. In order to realize this aim, they now recommend that the U.S. increase the number of nuclear warheads to be dismantled from the current target of 350 a year to 1,000 and that Russia step up its own pace from 450 to 1,500. These concrete figures for nuclear reduction are a new aspect to the plan.
The updated plan has also shortened the period, from ten to seven years, during which all nuclear weapon states will join the process of reducing nuclear weapons from 100 to zero. This is a primary reason the deadline for nuclear abolition has been trimmed by five years.
The problem is how to implement the steps toward nuclear disarmament and abolition. While U.S. President Barack Obama has pledged to “realize a world without nuclear weapons,” major barriers, including resistance from the U.S. military-industrial complex, lay ahead. The ongoing nuclear disarmament negotiations with Russia have, with the U.S. missile defense (MD) dilemma, not yet permitted optimism.
However, a stalemate involving nuclear negotiations will only increase the risk of further nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Above all, for the purpose of achieving substantial nuclear reductions in the U.S. and Russia, decisions by the U.S. and Russian leaders are required. The growth of global public opinion against nuclear weapons, including the Global Zero initiative, will help spur these decisions.
(Originally published on July 1, 2009)
Related articles
Nuclear weapons can be eliminated: Global Zero initiative backed by prominent figures (March 29, 2009)
Global forum launched to pursue nuclear arms abolition (Dec. 11, 2008)
The plan by the Global Zero Commission calls on the United States and Russia, the world's biggest nuclear powers, to agree to reduce their arsenals first to 1,000 warheads each by 2013, followed by a cut to 500 each by 2021.
The United States is believed to possess about 2,200 active strategic nuclear warheads and Russia about 2,800. Each has thousands more in reserve as well as large numbers of tactical nuclear arms.
The U.S.-Russia summit on July 6, Obama's second, is expected to hammer out a bilateral accord cutting nuclear stockpiles through a pact to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START 1, which will expire in December.
''The world is nearing a proliferation tipping point when nuclear weapons spread beyond the capacity of any effort to rein them in and the chances increase that they will be used by a country in conflict or by accident, or by a terrorist group,'' the commission said.
In the second phase of reductions to 500, the plan says, all other nuclear weapons states -- Britain, China, France, India, Israel and Pakistan -- would have to agree to freeze and then cut their total warheads.
In the third period from 2019 to 2023, it says, a ''global zero accord'' would be negotiated to include a schedule for the phased, verified reduction of all nuclear arsenals to zero total warheads.
In the fourth and final phase from 2024 to 2030, the cuts would be completed and a comprehensive verification and enforcement system would be maintained, according to the plan.
The Global Zero Commission includes Richard Burt, chief U.S. negotiator for the START 1 negotiations, former U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel, Medvedev adviser Igor Yurgens, and Russian Sen. Mikhail Margelov.
(Distributed by Kyodo News on June 29, 2009)
Comment: Public opinion against nuclear weapons to spur U.S. and Russian decisions
by Akira Tashiro, Executive Director of the Hiroshima Peace Media Center
The plan presented by Global Zero sets a deadline of the year 2030 for the abolition of nuclear weapons, five years earlier than the plan presented at the group’s inaugural conference six months ago. The latest plan notes anew the threats of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism facing human beings and urges political leaders of nuclear weapon states to take action for nuclear disarmament and nuclear abolition in order to thwart these dangers.
Global Zero, led by Richard Burt and others, says that the U.S. and Russia have already dismantled more than 40,000 nuclear weapons during the roughly 20 years since the end of the Cold War between the U.S. and Russia and that dismantling the remaining arsenals by 2030, in excess of 20,000 warheads, is a distinct possibility.
The basic concept involves the U.S. and Russia, which possess 96 percent of all nuclear weapons in the world, each reducing the number of their arsenals to 1,000 and then to 500. This is the same general goal as in the group’s previous plan. In order to realize this aim, they now recommend that the U.S. increase the number of nuclear warheads to be dismantled from the current target of 350 a year to 1,000 and that Russia step up its own pace from 450 to 1,500. These concrete figures for nuclear reduction are a new aspect to the plan.
The updated plan has also shortened the period, from ten to seven years, during which all nuclear weapon states will join the process of reducing nuclear weapons from 100 to zero. This is a primary reason the deadline for nuclear abolition has been trimmed by five years.
The problem is how to implement the steps toward nuclear disarmament and abolition. While U.S. President Barack Obama has pledged to “realize a world without nuclear weapons,” major barriers, including resistance from the U.S. military-industrial complex, lay ahead. The ongoing nuclear disarmament negotiations with Russia have, with the U.S. missile defense (MD) dilemma, not yet permitted optimism.
However, a stalemate involving nuclear negotiations will only increase the risk of further nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Above all, for the purpose of achieving substantial nuclear reductions in the U.S. and Russia, decisions by the U.S. and Russian leaders are required. The growth of global public opinion against nuclear weapons, including the Global Zero initiative, will help spur these decisions.
(Originally published on July 1, 2009)
Related articles
Nuclear weapons can be eliminated: Global Zero initiative backed by prominent figures (March 29, 2009)
Global forum launched to pursue nuclear arms abolition (Dec. 11, 2008)
