U.S. administration embarks on preparatory work on CTBT
Mar. 7, 2011
By Masakatsu Ota
The U.S. administration will likely start preparatory work in March for persuading senators to support the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, a senior U.S. official and a specialist close to the government told Kyodo News recently.
The administration of President Barack Obama will submit a new National Intelligence Estimate providing technical supporting evidence for ratification to the Senate soon while the National Academies of Science will publish an analytical study report supporting ratification in spring, they said.
The ratification of the treaty for a total ban on nuclear tests, including underground tests, by the United States would be a symbolic milestone for Obama's ''nuclear-free world'' agenda.
The CTBT, agreed and endorsed in 1996 at the U.N. General Assembly, was voted down by the Senate in 1999 due to strong concerns mainly pressed by Republicans about verification feasibility and the reliable maintenance of U.S. nuclear stockpiles. Senators opposing the treaty noted a lack of confidence in detection measures and pointed to possible ''cheating'' by other countries.
The preceding George W. Bush administration showed the same deep skepticism as congressional Republicans did, and dismissed the option of even asking for a vote in Congress on ''advice and consent'' for CTBT ratification.
Obama, however, reversed this course dramatically and pledged to pursue early ratification of the CTBT by the nuclear superpower.
''To achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. After more than five decades of talks, it is time for the testing of nuclear weapons to finally be banned,'' Obama declared in his historic ''Prague Speech'' in April 2009.
According to the official and the specialist, the Obama administration will start its consultation with the Senate by pointing to technical improvements in the detection and analytical capabilities of covert testing as well as significant advances in technologies for maintaining reliable and safe nuclear warheads without nuclear tests over the past decade.
Since the 1990s, U.S. nuclear laboratories have used the technically advanced ''Stockpile Stewardship Program,'' or SSP, for keeping up the quality of nuclear warheads without nuclear tests. Sub-critical nuclear tests, which do not cause a nuclear chain reaction, are also used by the program.
The administration's plan ''is to move forward starting in March or so to begin providing background information about CTBT to the Senate, all in preparation for initiating a new debate with the intention of getting U.S. ratification,'' the specialist said.
''My impression is that these are sincere plans, but of course unexpected political events can quickly change matters,'' he added.
In the congressional mid-term elections last November, Obama's Democratic Party lost six of its previous 59 seats which included two Democrat-leaning independents. That means the administration needs at least 14 ''yes'' votes from the Republican side to pass a resolution supporting CTBT ratification.
Last October, a senior State Department official indicated positive prospects for CTBT ratification, telling Kyodo News ''the emphasis on CTBT will pick up in the next year.'' However, the defeat of the Democrats in November has changed the political climate in Washington for early ratification.
''I think a key question that will emerge this summer is whether there is time to prepare for a vote before the 2012 presidential and congressional elections begin to get in the way,'' according to the specialist, who has connections with the administration on the issue.
There is also caution about the possibility of ratification before the 2012 election. Gregory Kulacki, a senior analyst at U.S. think tank Union of Concerned Scientists, said Obama might wait another two years for ratification after seeing the retirements of some strong Republican opponents like Sen. Jon Kyl.
The U.S. official, however, emphasized several points that could expand the support base in the Republican Senate for ratification.
Firstly, the United States has improved its own detection measurements for covert nuclear tests by using seismic technologies, satellite images and debris-fallout collection measures over the past decade, the official said.
The International Monitoring System, created by a preparatory body of the CTBT Organization, also adds to the administration's case. The IMS had established and certified 264 monitoring and analytical stations worldwide as of January 2011. The detection capabilities of the IMS and the United States would enhance the verification mechanism and alleviate concerns among the Republicans about potential ''cheating.''
Also technical improvements in the SSP would be good ammunition for Obama to persuade skeptical senators who put priority on maintaining a safe, secure and reliable nuclear deterrence for the United States and its allies including Japan, the official and the specialist said.
Potential political costs for the resumption of nuclear tests are also significantly high, the official added. The United States suspended nuclear tests after President George H.W. Bush announced a testing moratorium in 1992.
As of May last year, 182 countries had signed the CTBT, with 153 of them ratifying it. To put the treaty into effect, ratification by 44 countries with nuclear reactors for research and power generation purposes is necessary but nine such countries -- China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United States -- have yet to ratify it.
(Distributed by Kyodo News on March 6, 2011)
The U.S. administration will likely start preparatory work in March for persuading senators to support the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, a senior U.S. official and a specialist close to the government told Kyodo News recently.
The administration of President Barack Obama will submit a new National Intelligence Estimate providing technical supporting evidence for ratification to the Senate soon while the National Academies of Science will publish an analytical study report supporting ratification in spring, they said.
The ratification of the treaty for a total ban on nuclear tests, including underground tests, by the United States would be a symbolic milestone for Obama's ''nuclear-free world'' agenda.
The CTBT, agreed and endorsed in 1996 at the U.N. General Assembly, was voted down by the Senate in 1999 due to strong concerns mainly pressed by Republicans about verification feasibility and the reliable maintenance of U.S. nuclear stockpiles. Senators opposing the treaty noted a lack of confidence in detection measures and pointed to possible ''cheating'' by other countries.
The preceding George W. Bush administration showed the same deep skepticism as congressional Republicans did, and dismissed the option of even asking for a vote in Congress on ''advice and consent'' for CTBT ratification.
Obama, however, reversed this course dramatically and pledged to pursue early ratification of the CTBT by the nuclear superpower.
''To achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. After more than five decades of talks, it is time for the testing of nuclear weapons to finally be banned,'' Obama declared in his historic ''Prague Speech'' in April 2009.
According to the official and the specialist, the Obama administration will start its consultation with the Senate by pointing to technical improvements in the detection and analytical capabilities of covert testing as well as significant advances in technologies for maintaining reliable and safe nuclear warheads without nuclear tests over the past decade.
Since the 1990s, U.S. nuclear laboratories have used the technically advanced ''Stockpile Stewardship Program,'' or SSP, for keeping up the quality of nuclear warheads without nuclear tests. Sub-critical nuclear tests, which do not cause a nuclear chain reaction, are also used by the program.
The administration's plan ''is to move forward starting in March or so to begin providing background information about CTBT to the Senate, all in preparation for initiating a new debate with the intention of getting U.S. ratification,'' the specialist said.
''My impression is that these are sincere plans, but of course unexpected political events can quickly change matters,'' he added.
In the congressional mid-term elections last November, Obama's Democratic Party lost six of its previous 59 seats which included two Democrat-leaning independents. That means the administration needs at least 14 ''yes'' votes from the Republican side to pass a resolution supporting CTBT ratification.
Last October, a senior State Department official indicated positive prospects for CTBT ratification, telling Kyodo News ''the emphasis on CTBT will pick up in the next year.'' However, the defeat of the Democrats in November has changed the political climate in Washington for early ratification.
''I think a key question that will emerge this summer is whether there is time to prepare for a vote before the 2012 presidential and congressional elections begin to get in the way,'' according to the specialist, who has connections with the administration on the issue.
There is also caution about the possibility of ratification before the 2012 election. Gregory Kulacki, a senior analyst at U.S. think tank Union of Concerned Scientists, said Obama might wait another two years for ratification after seeing the retirements of some strong Republican opponents like Sen. Jon Kyl.
The U.S. official, however, emphasized several points that could expand the support base in the Republican Senate for ratification.
Firstly, the United States has improved its own detection measurements for covert nuclear tests by using seismic technologies, satellite images and debris-fallout collection measures over the past decade, the official said.
The International Monitoring System, created by a preparatory body of the CTBT Organization, also adds to the administration's case. The IMS had established and certified 264 monitoring and analytical stations worldwide as of January 2011. The detection capabilities of the IMS and the United States would enhance the verification mechanism and alleviate concerns among the Republicans about potential ''cheating.''
Also technical improvements in the SSP would be good ammunition for Obama to persuade skeptical senators who put priority on maintaining a safe, secure and reliable nuclear deterrence for the United States and its allies including Japan, the official and the specialist said.
Potential political costs for the resumption of nuclear tests are also significantly high, the official added. The United States suspended nuclear tests after President George H.W. Bush announced a testing moratorium in 1992.
As of May last year, 182 countries had signed the CTBT, with 153 of them ratifying it. To put the treaty into effect, ratification by 44 countries with nuclear reactors for research and power generation purposes is necessary but nine such countries -- China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United States -- have yet to ratify it.
(Distributed by Kyodo News on March 6, 2011)
